Cargo theft may be occurring less frequently, but the financial damage is escalating dramatically. According to Verisk CargoNet’s latest analysis, estimated cargo losses across the United States and Canada more than doubled to $304.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, up from $135.7 million in the same period last year. This surge occurred even as the total number of reported theft incidents fell 14% from the first quarter and 26% year-over-year to 677 events.
The Paradox: Fewer Heists, Higher Losses
The intelligence network documented a sharp divergence between volume and severity. While incident counts dropped, the average reported commodity value skyrocketed to $564,009 per theft. Several multimillion-dollar heists targeting high-value metals and enterprise technology heavily skewed the average upward.
“Lower incident volume should not be mistaken for lower risk,” warned Keith Lewis, Verisk CargoNet’s vice president of operations. “The groups driving the largest losses are not necessarily trying to steal more freight; they are trying to identify the right shipment.” Lewis specifically highlighted metals and enterprise technology as prime targets for organized theft rings due to their high resale value and established secondary markets.
Metals and Technology: The Primary Drivers
Metal theft incidents jumped from 54 in Q2 2025 to 80 this year. Copper remained the most frequently targeted metal for the second consecutive year—the longest streak CargoNet has recorded. Aluminum, nickel, tungsten, and other specialized materials also attracted increased criminal attention. Metals now rank as the second-most stolen commodity category, trailing only food and beverage.
“Copper has been number one for two years now. That’s the longest stretch I’ve ever seen on copper,” said Scott Cornell, EVP and Crime and Theft Specialist at SPG Cargo & Logistics and chair of TAPA Americas. He urged companies moving metals to implement stronger controls, describing targeting as a question of when, not whether, for many metal loads.
Beyond metals, CargoNet identified persistent targeting of enterprise computer equipment, networking components, and cryptocurrency mining hardware. These shipments often carry multimillion-dollar values while moving as conventional dry freight, making them lucrative and difficult to distinguish from routine cargo.
Law Enforcement Impact and Emerging Threats
Cornell noted that recent law-enforcement operations in New York, New Jersey, California, and Canada—along with FBI and Homeland Security investigations—likely contributed to the quarterly decline in overall incidents. Physical thefts involving loaded equipment and non-delivery schemes (where bad actors acquire carrier authority, book freight, and fail to deliver) both declined notably, with theft classifications dropping from 488 to 378 events year-over-year.
However, fictitious pickup incidents remained stubbornly high, falling only marginally from 165 to 158 reports. Business email compromise and shipment misdirection schemes also showed steady activity. Compromised accounts expose shipment details, contact directories, and transportation-management tools, enabling criminals to impersonate trusted parties or alter load information.
Industry Takeaway: Process Over Personnel
The report underscores why fraud prevention cannot rely on individual vigilance alone. Consistent verification processes around carrier identity, email changes, and shipment instructions—before freight moves—are critical. As Cornell emphasized, “Fraud does not beat smart people. It beats inconsistent processes.”
Key Metrics at a Glance
- Q2 2026 Estimated Losses: $304.6 million (vs. $135.7M in Q2 2025)
- Total Incidents: 677 (down 14% QoQ, 26% YoY)
- Average Commodity Value: $564,009 per incident
- Metal Theft Incidents: 80 (up from 54 in Q2 2025)
- Top Targeted Metals: Copper, aluminum, nickel, tungsten
- Top States for Theft Reports: California, Texas, New Jersey (50.1% combined)
FAQ
- Why did cargo theft losses double while incident counts fell? A smaller number of high-value heists—particularly targeting copper, enterprise tech, and crypto mining hardware—drove up the average loss per incident to over $564,000, outweighing the reduction in total theft reports.
- Which commodities are most at risk right now? Metals (especially copper) and enterprise technology (servers, networking gear, cryptocurrency mining equipment) are the primary targets for organized theft groups due to high resale value and ease of liquidation.
- Is the Q2 decline in incidents the start of a sustained trend? Industry experts like Scott Cornell caution that one quarter does not establish a trend. Sustained reductions over two to three consecutive quarters would be needed to confirm a structural shift.
