Lake Forest, Illinois-based Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a prominent manufacturer and distributor of containerboard and uncoated freesheet (UFS) paper products in North America. Currently valued at a market capitalization of $21.5 billion, the company operates primarily through its Packaging and Paper segments. As a primary producer of the corrugated boxes used to ship consumer goods, PKG is often viewed by investors as a key indicator of overall retail and industrial economic health.
Q2 2026 Earnings Expectations
PKG is scheduled to release its second-quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, July 22, after the market closes. Ahead of the announcement, Wall Street consensus estimates project a diluted EPS of $2.36, representing a 4.8% decline from the $2.48 reported in the prior-year quarter. Historically, the company has delivered mixed earnings surprises, beating consensus expectations in two of the last four quarters while missing in the other two.
Fiscal 2026 and 2027 Projections
Despite the projected year-over-year decline for the second quarter, analysts maintain a positive growth outlook for the full fiscal year. For fiscal 2026, the company’s full-year EPS is expected to reach $10.45, reflecting a 6.2% increase compared to the $9.84 reported in fiscal 2025. Looking further ahead, analysts project a stronger acceleration in fiscal 2027, with EPS forecasted to grow by 17.8% year-over-year to $12.31.
Market Outperformance and Sector Comparison
Over the past 52 weeks, PKG stock has demonstrated significant strength, rising 28.7%. This performance outpaced the broader market, with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) gaining 19.8% over the same period. Furthermore, PKG substantially outperformed the consumer discretionary sector, represented by the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY), which returned 6.4% during this timeframe.
Reflecting on Q1 2026 Results
The anticipation surrounding the Q2 report follows a market correction in the previous quarter. On April 22, PKG stock fell 2.5% following the release of its Q1 2026 earnings. While the company’s first-quarter revenue climbed 10.6% year-over-year to $2.4 billion, it missed consensus estimates. Adjusted EPS for the first quarter came in at $1.91, also falling short of Wall Street forecasts.
Wall Street Sentiment and Price Targets
Consensus analyst sentiment remains constructive. The stock currently holds a “Moderate Buy” rating. Among the 12 analysts covering PKG, eight rate the stock as a “Strong Buy,” while four recommend a “Hold.” The average analyst price target is currently $240.58. However, the street-high target of $258 suggests a potential upside of 6.8% from current trading levels.
